#True game data update

We've update all of our New Mexico draw odds across the site based on the results of our work with the real applicant data. However, any simulation or model that doesn’t correctly account for group applications and actual hunt choice orders in the real world is missing key inputs. More recently the results of other simulations have been published and marketed as the most accurate draw odds available. Historically, the most common way to calculate draw odds in New Mexico was to take the total tags available and divide that number by the total applicant pool. In addition to the raw number of applications per a given hunt code, there are 2 key real world inputs that must be considered to calculate the true odds in a previous draw: It takes less than 2 seconds to process and store a single draw of 50,000 applications. Then we run each draw thousands of times to normalize individual anomalies and get an accurate overall result. First, the process constructs the hunt specific tag quotas and the entire application pool for a given year/species from the real applicant data. Our computer draw encapsulates all of these characteristics, as well as some additional logic that handles group applications containing a mix of residents and nonresidents.

Keep in mind that it’s possible to draw your 3rd choice for hunt X, before someone who applied for hunt X as their 1st choice.

If the application is from a group, there must be enough undrawn tags remaining for all members of the group in order to be successful.

Your 1st, 2nd and 3rd hunt choices are all evaluated, in choice order, to see if a tag is available.

Applications are then selected in order, from smallest random number to largest.

Each individual and group application is assigned a single random number.

You may apply as group, with a maximum number of 4 hunters per group.

New Mexico does not have a preference/bonus point system – successful applicants are chosen by random chance.

Let’s quickly review how New Mexico’s big game draw process works: We’ve ran the draw 100s of thousands of times, with the actual applicant data, and the results have been an eye opener. With this real world data at our disposal, we built a computer program that executes the New Mexico big game draw in the exact same manner in which it is described by the state. Recently, Toprut obtained New Mexico’s complete application dataset for all big game species going back to 2012.

Any draw report or simulation available that doesn't correctly account for group applications and actual hunt choice order is missing key variables to calculate odds accurately.

This is a direct result of those applicants placing an easier to draw hunt in front of a harder to draw hunt.

48.1% of all elk, deer and antelope applications had incorrectly ordered their hunt choices such that they had a 0% chance of drawing either their 2nd or 3rd choice in the 2016 draw.

The optimum application strategy in New Mexico is to put your hardest to draw hunt as your 1st choice, and the easiest to draw as your 3rd choice.

New Mexico evaluates your 1st, 2nd and 3rd hunt choices in order to see if a tag is still available before moving on to the next application.

47% of individual applicants for elk, deer and antelope were a member of a group application in the 2016 draw.

Applying as a group in New Mexico will decrease your chances in the draw.

There are 2 key real world inputs that impact the true draw odds - Group Applications and 1st, 2nd & 3rd choice order.The true draw odds for a given hunt are better than what you've probably ever read (if you order your choices correctly).Toprut's New Mexico draw odds are generated from our own computer program using the actual New Mexico applicant dataset for each respective year.